Jan 21
Jamaica has continued to struggle with a narrow production structure and vulnerability to external climatic and economic shocks…The recent global economic slowdown severely impacted the Jamaican economy, resulting in declines of real GDP of 1.7% in fiscal year 2008/09 and 2.5% during 2009/10 as well as marked decreases in earnings from the export of goods and services and from remittances…
The WTO report has a strong neoliberal bias in that it takes an uncritical view of the supposedly benign effects of trade liberalisation. But it is a useful compendium of data on the recent performance of the Jamaican economy. I was particularly struck by its comments on Jamaica’s vulnerability to external economic and climatic shocks. The report projects a marginal increase in real GDP (0.5%) for 2010-2011 but notes that one of the downside risks is a sudden rise in international commodity prices. In fact, that has already happened in the past month. A recent commentary by Fidel Castro (19 January 2011) has summarised the information. However, the solution proposed by Fidel — reversing the shift of land from food to biofuels–though important, is not sufficient. Seems to me that we in Jamaica/Caribbean should also be energetically pursuing policies of food self-sufficiency–intensive sustainable agriculture, shifting consumption patterns to what can be produced locally and regionally. Returns to farming have to be dramatically increased relative to returns to trading and finance; supported by state investment in infrastructure, R&D, and water, training of young farmers, etc. The Caribbean Community Centre for Climate Change is pointing to the likely effects on agriculture and food security of the rise in average temperature, change in annual precipitation, increasing frequency of floods and hurricanes and sea level rise that are already accompanying climate change. We have to find more ways to bring these facts to the attention of the public and to motivate our governments to take action in the area of agriculture and food production and climate change adaptation.
Here is Fidel’s summary of information on the alarming rise in global food prices in the past few weeks:
“Production of wheat, soya, corn, rice and other numerous grains and legumes that make up the food base of the world ““ whose population today according to calculations totals almost 6.9 billion inhabitants, now coming close to the new figure of 7billion, and where more than one billion are suffering from hunger and malnutrition ““ are being seriously affected by climate changes, creating a very serious problem in the world. When reserves have not been totally recovered or just partially in some items, a serious threat is now creating problems and destabilization in many States.
More than 80 countries, all of them in the Third World, already having difficult problems of their own, are being threatened with real famines.
I shall limit myself to quote these statements and reports, in a summary fashion, which have been published in the last few days:
” The UN is warning about the risk of a new food crisis.
” January 11, 2011 (AFP)”
” “˜We are facing a very tense situation”™”¦” FAO corroborates.
” Some 80 countries are facing a shortage of food…”
” The global rate of prices for basic agricultural products (grains, meat, sugar, oleaginous and dairy products) is currently at its highest level since FAO began to use that index rate 20 years ago.”
” UNITED NATIONS, January (IPS),”
” The UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), with headquarters in Rome, last week alerted that world prices for rice, wheat, sugar, barley and meat ["¦] would undergo significant increases in 2011″¦”
” PARIS, January 10 (Reuters) – President Nicolas Sarkozy of France shall be taking his campaign to confront the high global food prices to Washington this week “¦”
” Basel (Switzerland), Janaury 10 (EFE).- The president of the Central European Bank (BCE), Jean Claude Trichet, spokesperson for the governors of the central banks of the Group of 10 (G-10), today cautioned about the strong rise in food prices and the inflationist threat in emerging economies.”
” The World Bank fears a crisis in the price of foods, January 15 (BBC)
” The president of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, told the BBC that the crisis would be deeper than that of 2008.”
” MEXICO DF, January 7 (Reuters)”
” The annual rhythm of inflation for foods has increased threefold in Mexico in November as compared to two months ago…”
” Washington, January 18 (EFE)
” The climate change will aggravate the lack of foods, according to a study.”
” “˜Since more than 20 years ago, scientists have been alerting about the impact of climate change, but nothing is changing other than the increase in emissions that cause global warning”™, Liliana Hisas, executive director of the US affiliate of this organization told EFE.
” Osvaldo Canziani, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 and scientific advisor for the report, indicated that “˜in the entire world meteorological episodes and extreme climatic conditions are being recorded, and increases in average surface temperatures are exacerbating the intensity of these episodes”™.”
” (Reuters) January 18, Algeria is buying wheat to avoid shortages and unrest.
” The State grain agency of Algeria has bought around 1 million tons of wheat in the last two weeks to avoid shortages in the case of unrest, a Ministry of Agriculture source informed Reuters.
” (Reuters) January 18, Wheat shows a strong gain in Chicago after Algerian purchases.”
” The Economist, January 18, 2011
” World alert due to food prices”
” Among the main causes are the floods and droughts caused by climatic changes, the use of foods to manufacture bio-fuels and speculation in commodities prices.”
The problems are dramatically serious. However, all is not lost.
Current calculated wheat production reached almost 650 million tons.
That of corn surpasses that amount and nears 770 million tons.
Soy could come close to 260 million tons; of this the US calculates 92 million and Brazil 77 million. They are the two greatest producers.
The general data on grains and legumes available in 2011 are well-known.
The first matter to be resolved by the world community would be to choose between foods and bio-fuels. Brazil, a developing country, shall of course have to be compensated.
If the millions of tons of soy and corn being invested into bio-fuels are routed towards the production of foods, the unusual rise in prices would cease and the world`s scientists would be able to propose formulae that might in some way or other halt and even reverse the situation.
We have lost too much time. The time has come to do something now.
Whenever I read these pronouncements, I am always amused at the bout of “historical amnesia” that these international financial organisations (IFO’s) and the North Atlantic media seem to succumb too. During the past decades these IFO’s have sought to dismantle the developing world’s capacity to feed itself and re-orient indigenous agricultural production and consumption practices according to neo- liberal policies. These problems have occured and will continue to occur as a direct result of the wholesale adoption by Caribbean governments of the unworkable model of development handed down to us by the North Atlantic institutions. Governments need to have the political will and collective support of the people in order to survive the oncoming global food crisis…in fact this is the way in which Cuba survived after the collapse of the Soviet Union. (This is well documented in a beautifull and awe- inspiring documentary “How Cuba survived the oil crisis”).
The human expertise is right here in the region in fact, the late Dr. Dennis Pantin was a strong advocate of Ecologism as a sustainable model of development for Small island developing states.
Ed. note: The Title of the film is “Ho Cuba Survived Peak Oil”. Its very informative–NG
Forgive, but I must say this:
What exactly makes the people of Cuba different from us? Is revolution? Is embargo? Is our collective (even if not total) overwhelming belief in that country’s success? From the horn of Africa to the tip of the tip of Viesques? Even some in the heartlands of the US of America?
Must we not take up the soiled rags of our compliance and eke out the salvation that we can and must? What I mean? I think I want us to get past saying we politicians don’t have the will and we people weak. I recall writing that in papers back as an undergraduate neofight (not incorrectly spelt)in 1974. And I am sure we are tired of weall self and we own historic amnesia.
Can we say the magic words that will prevent a party foolish holocost in St Vincent? Can we ask the world to withdraw from states that have neuclear armamentations the ability to speak retaliation words into the ears of all our young ones? That is such blaspheme when is a sadness that mek a one tie up theyself to a bomb and blow them selves to kingdom and mek we meat as we make to market and wend we weary way across the skies.
God, i so tired of weself and we war.
Guidance,
margaret kawamuinyo