Blogowner’s introduction: in a series of recent columns and in his recent television appearance, the Cuban Leader Fidel Castro has been warning of plans for an Israeli attack on Iran and the dangers of nuclear war breaking out as a result. Yesterday the prestigious Oxford Research Group published a new report by Professor Paul Rogers (who correctly predicted the consequences of the U.S. attack on Iraq) that concluded that such an attack, which is almost ceretainly being planned, would lead to a protracted war without solving the Iran nuclear controversy.

Such a protracted war would have devastating consequences for the small, largely tourism-dependent and energy-dependent economies of the Caribbean. The price of oil on world markets would skyrocket, saddling economies already reeling from the effects of the global financial crisis with additional payments deficits; and increasing already excessive debt burdens. Tourism would almost certainly contract, both as a result of renewed global recession and of the rise in global insecurity as thousands of radicalsed young Muslims turn to desperate actions in their rage and frustration. Remittances would also come under pressure with renewed global economic slowdown.

In these circumstances a region with serious political leadership would be acting on two fronts. First, diplomatic action to support a peaceful resolution to the crisis; such as the proposal put forward by Brazil and Turkey. And second, contingency planning to mitigate the effects of the likely economic fall-out of a war. Caricom countries are however, crippled in their ability to respond to this and other crises by the lack of a muscular political and institutional machinery for regional decision-making consequent on their continued failure to act on the reform of Community governance, recently shown once again by the non-decisions taken at the recent Summit. And much of media appear to prefer to focus on sound bites emanating from the Summit (”ATM machine” etc) rather than on the substantive issues. Internationally, we seem to be “whistling in the wind”, as local media take their cue from the Western-dominated news agencies.  Much of the coverage of Fidel Castro’s interview, for instance, ignored the substance of the message which motivated his rare appearance. It will be interesting to see how much coverage the Oxford Research Group’s report receives; and whether any Caribbean leader comments on its dire warnings and those issued earlier by the Cuban leader; and their implications for the region’s well-being.

Norman July 16, 2010

Click here for the Paul Rogers/Oxford Research Group Report

Click here for Fidel’s Reflections on the coming war